当前位置: 首页> 重要天气消息

重要天气消息

  <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center;" align="center"> <span style="font-size:18pt;font-family:方正小标宋简体;">4</span><span style="font-size:18pt;font-family:方正小标宋简体;">月以来全省平均降水量偏多近一倍</span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center;" align="center"> <span style="font-size:18pt;font-family:方正小标宋简体;">月底前全省仍多阴雨天气,不利影响逐渐增大<span></span></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;"><span>       </span></span></b><b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">摘要</span></b><b><span style="font-size:16pt;">: </span></b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">今年以来,我省降水明显偏多,全省平均降水量为</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">146.6</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">毫米</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">,较常年偏多</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">49.7</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">毫米</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">,</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">偏多近</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">5</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">成,特别是</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">月以来我省降水偏多近一倍;日照明显偏少,全省平均日照时数</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">691.5</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">小时,较常年偏少。总体来说,</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">2017</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">年以来,全省气象干旱程度总体偏轻,冬暖春冷、雨量偏多的气象条件对夏粮生产利大于弊,对春耕春播生产也较好,但对南部热带、亚热带经济作物不利影响较大。未来一周全省仍将多阴雨天气,地质灾害气象风险等级逐步升高,需加强防范和应对。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:黑体;">一、今年以来我省天气气候特点<span></span></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">(一)降水明显偏多<span></span></span></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">今年以来(</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">2017</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">年</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">1</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">1</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">~</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">20</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">),全省平均降水量为</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">146.6</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">毫米</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">,较常年偏多</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">49.7</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">毫米</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">,</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">偏多近</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">5</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">成</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">。与常年相比,全省</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">108</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">个县(市)偏多,其中滇中以西大部地区的</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">69</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">个县(市)偏多</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">50%</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">以上,漾濞、弥渡、祥云和姚安降水突破历史同期最大值;弥渡降水为常年平均值的</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">2</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">倍。仅昭通北部、曲靖东部及迪庆大部的</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">17</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">个县(市)降水偏少。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"> <span></span></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月以来(</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">1</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">~</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">20</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">)全省平均降水量为</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">59.1</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">毫米</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">,较常年偏多</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">29.2</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">毫米。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">(二)日照时数明显偏少<span></span></span></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">全省平均日照时数</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">691.5</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">小时,较常年偏少</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">52.0</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">小时(</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">7.0%</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">),为</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">1961</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">年以来第</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">10</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">少年份。与常年相比,全省除了滇西北的部分地区以外,</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">108</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">个县(市)日照偏少,其中</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">105</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">个县(市)偏少</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">10</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">~</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">20%</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">以内,</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">3</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">个县(市)偏少</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">20</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">~</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">50%</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">特别是</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月以来全省平均日照时数</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">122.7</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">小时,较常年偏少</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">18.9</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">小时(</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">13.3%</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">),为</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">1961</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">年以来第</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">9</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">少年份。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:黑体;">二、前期天气气候的影响分析<span></span></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">2017</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">年以来我省降水偏多,且分布较均匀,气温正常偏高,森林火灾较少,强对流天气偏少,灾情偏轻,气候总体有利。<span></span></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">(一)对农业生产利大于弊。</span></b><span style="font-size:16pt;">2017</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">年以来冬暖春冷、雨量偏多的气象条件对夏粮生产利大于弊,对</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">春耕春播生产也较好。但对南部热带、亚热带经济作物不利影响较大;春茶采摘期偏晚<span>10</span></span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">天左右,茶叶萌发量少、不同程度减产;橡胶开割期偏晚半个月至</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">1</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">个月左右,且白粉病发生偏重。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">(二)降低了全省森林火险气象等级。</span></b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">时晴时雨,降雨偏多的气候特点,在我省干季有效增加了空气湿度,明显降低了森林火险气象等级,对今年以来全省森林防火十分有利。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">(三)全省库塘蓄水良好。</span></b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">据省防办统计,截至</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">2017</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">年</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">20</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">,全省库塘蓄水</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">68.8</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">亿方,比多年同期多蓄</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">16.8</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">亿方。其中昆明市库塘蓄水</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">111230</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">万方,比</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">2016</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">年同期多蓄蓄</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">11483</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">万方。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:黑体;">三、未来<span>10</span>天全省仍多降雨天气,不利影响逐渐增大<span></span></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">预计未来一周多降雨天气,</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"> <span>4</span><span style="font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月</span><span>24</span><span style="font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日</span><span style="font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">至</span><span>26</span></span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日将出现强降水天气,滇西、滇南、滇西北有中到大雨局部暴雨。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">29</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">至</span><span style="font-size:16pt;">30</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">日起降雨范围及强度减小,我省大部地区气温将逐步回升。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">关注重点和建议<span></span></span></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">(一)防范对农业生产的不利影响。</span></b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">4</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">月下旬我省仍多降温降雨天气,对中南部已成熟夏粮收晒、中东部及以北地区水稻育秧、大面积烤烟移栽伸根、南部经济作物橡胶开割、甘蔗砍运等均有一定不利影响。中南部地区抓紧晴朗间隙抢收夏粮;春耕春播尚未完成地区,宜加快进度,抢墒播种;中北部及以东地区水稻秧苗需防烂,加强病虫害监测防控;加强经济作物田间管理,烟田、蔗田、茶园、橡胶园、咖啡园等应做好排水措施,防止病虫害发生;积极施用热性肥料,提高地温,促进前期受低温影响的经济作物恢复正常生长。<span></span></span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:32pt;"> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">(二)防范地质灾害。</span></b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">预计<span>4</span>月下旬,</span><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">滇西北、滇西和滇南等地地质灾害气象风险等级将逐步升高至Ⅲ级(风险较高),其中德宏、保山、临沧、红河局部地区可达Ⅱ级(风险高)。需加强监测预警,组织做好防灾避险工作。</span><span style="font-size:16pt;"></span> </p> <b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:楷体_GB2312;">       (三)防范强对流天气。</span></b><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:仿宋_GB2312;">春季冷暖空气交替频繁,强对流天气突出,易诱发雷电、大风、冰雹灾害,各地需密切关注天气预报预警信息,完善防雷、防风、防雹设施,做好突发灾害性天气的防范应对工作。各级气象部门将适时开展防雹工作,尽最大努力预防和减轻灾害损失。</span>